Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
